At a time when builders across Virginia are facing a rapidly changing economic landscape, a group of expert panelists at the HBAV Annual Conference didn’t shy away from the hard truths. 

The much-anticipated discussion took place on the second day of the conference. Titled “The Real State of Housing: Truth, Trends and What’s Next,” it featured four industry leaders offering candid takes on the pressures and opportunities shaping the future of residential construction.

Moderated by Mya Tran-Harter, senior vice president for Intercoastal Mortgage and HBAV’s 2025 Woman of the Year, the panel included Frank Ballif, founder and president of Southern Development Homes; Dana Cowart, president of The Lester Group; Spen Custis, division president of Eastwood Homes; and Larry Murphy, president of Urban Development Corporation. The session balanced honest assessments with forward-looking optimism, touching on market shifts, policy headwinds, and innovations in homebuilding.

Tran-Harter, a top-producing loan officer known for mentoring others and advocating for women in the industry, returned to moderate the session for a second year. She wasted no time setting the tone. “Our industry is evolving fast,” she said, “and today’s panel is here to cut through the noise and bring you the truth, the trends and what’s coming next.”

The conversation started with volatility. Cowart, a veteran in lumber and real estate, pointed to the unpredictability of tariffs. “Are they on? Are they off? Are they up? Are they down?” he said. “All that just creates this cloud of uncertainty.” That kind of instability, he noted, makes it difficult to price jobs or advise customers — even for companies used to managing market swings.

Ballif turned the focus to land use and a reality that seemingly shovel-ready projects can be delayed for years. He described a rezoning process in Albemarle County that stretched more than a decade and ultimately reduced a 300-home project to just 80 units. “That alone obviously restricts supply,” he said. “But it comes at a real cost to society.”

Custis, who oversees Eastwood Homes’ operations in Richmond and Hampton Roads, brought even more data to the conversation. “We only had 1,871 lots rezoned in the Richmond MSA last year,” he said, “but we pulled 4,928 permits.” That gap, he said, is unsustainable. He credited HBAV’s work with the state on a new wetlands mitigation bank as a meaningful breakthrough.

Murphy leads a contracting firm specializing in residential an

d commercial construction and renovation. He zoomed out to the larger issue on affordability: “There’s a tremendous gap in household wealth,” he said, “and that gap is primarily driven by the fact that some folks own homes… and others don’t.” With experience across engineering, manufacturing, and housing finance, Murphy framed homeownership as a tool for lasting community impact.

He later offered a cautionary note to the builders in the audience, shaped by years of business ownership. “Make sure you have enough margin built in to pay yourself first,” he said. “If you’re not careful, you won’t have anything to show for your effort.”

When asked what’s working, Cowart emphasized trust — especially with suppliers and clients. “I don’t want customers, I want partners,” he said. That kind of long-term thinking, he noted, helps stabilize operations when volume slows.

As the panel wrapped, each speaker offered parting advice. Custis kept it practical: “Focus your energy on the things you can control.” Ballif, true to form, kept it grounded: “People need three basic things to survive — food, water and shelter. We help provide one of those. That’s a noble profession.”

For more on the speakers, visit our speaker bio page.

Listen to the Full Panel Below: